I enjoy analyzing historical data, am intrigued by making forecasts, and love being around goal-driven people.
Influenza Season Plan
PROBLEM:
• Staff agency must determine where and how many staff to send to each state in order to prepare hospitals for the upcoming flu season.
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OBJECTIVE:
• Perform statistical analysis to look at influenza trends so we can proactively plan for staffing requirements across the country.
KEYNOTES
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• Due to data privacy protection a bit more than 80% of CDC death data were suppressed and for further analysis were counted as a zero.
• Because there is various population size across the Country the analysis used the death ratio per population size.
SKILLS
TOOLS
DATA
Translating business requirements
Statistical hypothesis testing
Data cleaning, transformation & integration
Visual analysis
Forecasting
Storytelling in Tableau
Excel
Tableau
Influenza Season Plan
Key Insights
HYPOTHESIS:
If a state has a higher proportion of persons aged 65 and up, then such a state will have a higher influenza-related death rate.
I used statistical analysis to examine the relationships between the variables, and I discovered a weak positive relationship, which indicates that:
• if the proportion of people aged 65 and up increases, the death ratio will increase as well but in a weak way.
Where are people most vulnerable?
• I have found out that the states in the east have a higher death rate and that population density has a substantial impact on the number of deaths.
What does the future bring?
With a 95 % of confidence range, we can say that:
• The highest growth in the number of deaths is projected for the state of Hawaii at 7.6 % for the year 2018.
• The growth in the number of deaths is also predicted for the states of Mississippi and Tennessee.
• The number of Influenza related deaths in other states will stagnate in the 2018 year.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Conduct more research:
• to determine which states, have the highest population density;
• to determine the correlation between population density with the speed with which the virus spreads.
DELIVERABLES:
Until we get the result of the new research, I recommend assigning additional medical staff to states such as New York, Tennessee, and Hawaii because they have the highest per-population death rate.
